“Based on current economic forecasts 2012 sees better conditions or at least reduced uncertainty as consumers have become accustomed to the economic climate,” said CAP’s commercial vehicle expert and Monitor Editor Tim Cattlin.

“Supply remains relatively low, provided manufacturers do not employ mass tactical registrations. Any price reduction trend established in 2011 will therefore level out and in some cases return to above trend.

"In 2013, if current economic forecasts hold true, stronger retail recovery will inject further confidence and although money will still be tight for consumers they will be more prepared to make significant spending commitments.”

This is also the case with light commercials. While used values may decline next year, they are likely to perform strongly in 2012.

“Recovery will begin in earnest toward the end of 2012 and the benefits of reduced registrations in 2008/9/10 will be felt in terms of used undersupply providing a boost for values,” explains Cattlin.

“The Olympics will provide further impetus to the light commercials sector and the combination of improved consumer confidence and restricted supply will fuel strong demand for used product.”

Mike Pilkington, managing director, Manheim Remarketing, agrees saying the lack of supply in the used car market is already being felt.

“Although reductions in registration volumes have already impacted on the supply of nearly new vehicles into the market we are now picking up on perceived shortages of two and three-year-old vehicles for retail of specific brands. This lack of supply is undoubtedly helping support prices in the current market,” he said.

More follows on page three...