The SMMT’s latest forecast sees the new car market rising 1.2% above the 2009 level to 2.018 million units.

The impact of the shortage in used car volumes is already becoming evident – the number of used car sales fell by 350,000 to 6.3 million in 2009, with a sharp decline in sales of cars up to two-years old.

Sales of these cars fell by 22% to 762,000 units, reflecting the marked fall in new car volumes in 2008 and 2009.
For residual values to be sustained or improve, demand must remain strong. Indications are that this will be the case.

According to the BCA report, the number of motorists who say they, or a member of their family, will ‘certainly’ or ‘quite likely’ buy a used car in the next 12 months, dropped by just one point to 16% – while those who believe there is a 50:50 chance of doing so rose two points to 10%.

Two out five motorists intend to buy a used car next time they change, although the number of prospective buyers planning to buy a nearly-new car has fallen to 8%; compared with 9% last year and 13% three years earlier.

However, fleets were warned that just because there will be a shortage of used cars in the coming years, they are not guaranteed high resale values.

Not only is there some fear that the October spending review and a possible double-dip recession will drive down demand, but that even if demand remains strong, buyers will only pay top price for attractive cars.

Therefore get the colour, specification or even model wrong and RVs will suffer.