Motability declined to comment on the potential future size of the fleet following implementation of PIP.

However, a spokesman said: “The first priority of Motability is meeting the needs of our disabled customers and providing affordable worry free mobility for them.

“At this stage, it is impossible to predict the exact impact of the Government’s changes to disability benefits - transitioning Disability Living Allowance to Personal Independence Payments - between 2013 and 2018.

“In some cases, disabled people will become eligible for the Motability scheme for the first time, but others may no longer qualify. Whatever happens, the Motability scheme will continue to be a major provider of personal mobility to disabled people in the UK.”

Industry experts have told Fleet News that they believe the actual figure will be significantly lower than forecasted with some predicting that the overall reduction in the actual size of the Motability fleet could be less than 50,000 units by the time PIP has been fully introduced over the next six years.

Richard Parkin, director, calculations and analysis at Glass’s, said: “I don’t believe the volume of Motability cars returning to the market will materially impact on residual values.

“I struggle to believe some of the estimates that are being talked about in terms of fleet reduction because the people who qualify for a Motability vehicle are those who are most severely disabled so will retain their allowance, they are not at the margins.”

He also points to Motability’s professionally managed existing defleet process that sees perhaps more than half of vehicles annually remarketed outside of car auctions to wholesalers and the franchise dealer network who ‘want to buy those cars’ as there is a ready market for typically low mileage, high quality vehicles.

It’s a view shared by Philip Nothard, Black Book editor, retail and consumer specialist at CAP, who said: “The vehicles will be returned to the market place over a number of years and the Motability fleet is composed of a wide section of models and derivatives. Therefore, we don’t believe there will be any massive impact on residual values.

“Motability manages its used car remarketing very well and there is no evidence to suggest that it will not do so as a result of the impact of PIP.”

Additionally, it is understood that some dealers, particularly independent traders who rely on ex-Motability cars to replenish their forecourts, fear that any reduction in the organisation’s fleet size could impact on their ability to obtain the number of used cars required to meet customer demand.

However, Nothard said: “Any changes to the fleet size will take place over a number of years and the estimates of the reduction are based on computer forecasts and not reality.

“Coupled with the pro-active approach to remarketing adopted by Motability we don’t believe dealers have anything to fear.”

With PIP being phased in over a number of years there will be no major spike in the quantity of Motability vehicles being defleeted as a result of the ‘more objective reassessment’.

Additionally, people who do not currently qualify for the allowance either through a disability or age may do so over the coming years.

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