Expanding London’s ultra-low emission zone (ULEZ) will have a “massive financial impact” on fleets and motorists, new research from the RAC suggests.

The Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, announced in November, 2022, that the ULEZ will be expanded across the whole of the capital from August 29, 2023.

Drivers of affected vehicles who do not pay the £12.50 daily charge will face a fine of up to £160.

DVLA data, as of February 22, shows a total of 691,559 licensed cars in the whole of Greater London were either petrol cars first registered prior to January 2006 or diesel cars registered prior to September 2015 – the key dates for meeting ULEZ standards.

When counting all non-compliant vehicles, rather than solely cars, the figure rises to 851,065, a freedom of information (FOI) request made by the RAC reveals.

However, the RAC is warning that the number of drivers affected once the zone expands is likely to be far higher when taking into account vehicles entering from bordering counties such as Kent, Hertfordshire and Essex.

A £110 million scrappage scheme was launched in January to help lessen the impact. 

The fund is accessible to low-income and disabled Londoners, but the vast majority of fleets will miss out. TfL says that the scrappage scheme is open to charities, sole traders and business with 10 or fewer employees registered in London.

They can apply for a £5,000 grant to scrap a van or £7,000 for a minibus, with a £5,000 grant also available to retrofit certain vans or minibuses.

Grants to scrap and replace a van or minibus with a fully electric vehicle (EV) are set at £7,500 and £9,500 respectively.  

RAC head of roads policy, Nicholas Lyes, said: “Cleaning up London’s air should undoubtedly be a priority, but the sheer number of vehicles that don’t meet ULEZ emissions standards in Greater London suggests there will be a massive financial impact on motorists and businesses through having to fork out £12.50 every day they drive in the zone.”

Lyes says that there needs to be more co-ordination between the Mayor and the Government to help small businesses, tradespeople, NHS staff and carers who have no choice but to drive into the expanded ULEZ for work purposes from outside Greater London.

Consideration should also be given to those who work at night when public transport is greatly reduced in the outer boroughs, he said.

“We need more creativity from London’s Mayor and his team to help people out as the current scrappage scheme is akin to using a plughole to drain an Olympic-sized swimming pool – it’s simply not big enough for the scale of the job,” Lyes continued.

“We believe he should consider introducing an additional one-year sunset period for certain key workers or a scheme where TfL partners with a leasing company to provide discounted, ULEZ-compliant vehicles to smaller businesses or traders, enabling them to avoid daily charges while still reducing roadside emissions.”

TfL says 90% of cars meet ULEZ standards

New data released by TfL shows that nine in 10 cars seen driving in outer London, on an average day, meet ULEZ standards.

In November 2021, TfL estimated car compliance at 85%, up from around 75% estimated from earlier analysis of cars seen in June 2020.

TfL is advising people to use its vehicle checker to see if they will be affected. This tool has been viewed more than six million times since November 2022, when the plans to expand the ULEZ London-wide were confirmed.

Khan said: “I have always been clear with Londoners that the aim of the ULEZ is to get the most polluting vehicles off our roads in order to protect both the health of Londoners and our environment.

“This new data shows people, businesses and charities understand the impact of air pollution on health and are preparing for the change.”

He continued: “We expect the number of compliant vehicles to go up even more as people prepare for the expansion, but we know there is more to do to ensure every Londoner can breathe cleaner air.”

The expanded ULEZ will continue to operate 24 hours a day, every day of the year (except Christmas Day).

To comply with the ULEZ, petrol cars and vans must be Euro 4 and diesel cars and vans must be Euro 6. Motorcycles and mopeds must be Euro 3 to comply.

The original ULEZ scheme was introduced in April 2019 to cover central London before being expanded to the North/South Circular boundaries in October 2021.