Three-quarters of fleets in the Cenex trial said their opinion of EVs improved over the course of the trial, demonstrating the importance of experiencing the new generation of electric vehicles.

These early adopters will create the market for electric vehicles, which will in turn speed up the development of a national infrastructure. This will create confidence which will encourage more companies and members of the public to consider EVs.

By 2020, the Government expects up to 20% of new car sales to be EVs; those aspirations will only be achieved by the widescale buy-in by the corporate sector.

Fleets might dabble in biofuels or CNG. Some might even contemplate a return to LPG. But ultimately electric – from hybrid to full EV – will be the form of alternative fuel that will enjoy the greatest success in the short to medium term.

Why we need an alternative to diesel

Oil production is expected to peak between 2015 and 2020, according to the views of most experts.

Robert Hirsch, author of the report Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management, developed a projection for global peak production by 2015. In contrast, the more optimistic International Energy Agency forecast is for a plateau by 2020.

Irrespective of the actual date, it’s clear that we will soon be heading for a position whereby oil production is in decline, at a time when global demand is likely to increase due in part to the industrialisation of Asian countries.

Some reports claim there is an estimated 1.3 trillion barrels of proven oil reserve left in the world’s major fields, which at present rates of consumption will be sufficient to last 40 years.

By 2040, according to one prediction, production levels may be down to 15 million barrels per day – around 20% of what the world currently consumes. It is likely by then that the world’s population will be twice as large, and more of it industrialised (and therefore oil dependent).

That is clearly unsustainable, even on current levels of demand. Prices will rise, putting companies at risk unless changes are made.

The Hubbert peak theory

The Hubbert theory posits that for any geographical area, from an individual oil-producing region to the entire planet, the rate of petroleum production follows a bell-shaped curve. It is one of the primary theories on peak oil.

Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. M. King Hubbert created and first used the models behind peak oil in 1956 to accurately predict that USA oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970.

Some industry observers, predict negative global economic implications following a post-peak production decline – and oil price increase – due to the high dependence of industrialised nations on the low cost and high availability of oil. However, other models show the price of oil at first escalating and then retreating as other types of fuel and energy sources are used.