Fleet News

CAP and Glass's conflict over residual value forecasts

CONFLICTING views on the state of the used car market in 2002 have emerged from the two leading residual value forecasters. CAP Motor Research is predicting that residual values of typical three-year-old ex-company cars will be 2% higher than today's prices in three years' time, but Glass's is forecasting a 10% decline.

CAP's optimism is based on the type of cars that will be arriving on the second-hand car market. Mark Norman, editor of CAP Monitor Future Residual Values, said: 'The car parc in three years' time will consist of the Ford Focus, new Volkswagen Golf, new Vauxhall Astra and Peugeot 206, and they will be worth more than the Ford Escort, old Golf and old Astra are today.'

But Bill Carter, editor of Glass's Autoprovision, argued that new launches in the interim will take the gloss off the likes of the Focus, Astra and Golf. He attributed Glass's pessimistic view to the company car market's high proportion of upper medium models - those tipped for the biggest fall - and the continuing pressure on new car prices.

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