Fleet News

Remarketing: Manheim figures out the used-car market

MANHEIM Intelligence is the new quarterly analysis the remarketing giant produces for clients. With data from 50,000 vehicles, it is a comprehensive overview of the market.

Overall market

Average selling prices took a dip in Q4 2003, but were at a very high level in Q1 2004. In Q2 2004, they have reduced to a similar level to 12 months ago. Volumes in the marketplace have been consistently increasing since the traditional dip in Q4 2003, mainly due to last year’s fleet contract extensions.

Age and mileage profile

At the close of 2003, the age and mileage profile of vehicles in the sample basket were increasing slightly, once again caused by last year’s contract extensions. This was not the case in Q1 2004, but both age and mileage crept up again in Q2 2004 for fleet, dealer and manufacturer sectors.

Petrol and diesel

Demand for petrols and diesels has remained at similar levels over recent months. Petrol performance against CAP varies across vehicle categories, with diesel outperforming petrol in the large family and 4x4 sectors. Petrol has the edge in the medium family and compact executive sectors.

Market summary

The age and mileage profile of the sample basket of cars held constant through 2003, but began to increase in Q2 2004. Average vehicle values held at a fairly constant level through the early part of 2003, but reduced to £5,543 in Q4 2003. This rose –- as it can often do in the first quarter of each year – in Q1 2004 to £6,019, falling to £5,686 in Q2.

Used vehicle values to new price

The new price relates to the CAP value when the vehicle was new (CAP New). Used vehicle values of the basket of cars compared to new vehicle price reduced in Q4 2003 to 38.7% compared to a 2003 average of 39.6%. After an improvement in Q1 2004 it fell to 39.2% in Q2 of 2004.

Market volume trends

A reduction in volumes in Q4 2003 was followed by an increase in volumes in Q1 and Q2 2004. They have since increased beyond those of Q2 in 2003.

Age and mileage profile

The average profile of a fleet/lease vehicle at auction remained at around 41-42 months/60,000 miles through 2003. Q1 2004 saw this profile lengthen slightly, but this trend has been reversed in Q2 2004 back to 2003 levels.

Vehicle specification analysis

Petrol versus diesel

Through 2003 and into 2004, performance versus Cap Clean of petrol and diesel cars followed a similar trend, with petrols performing above diesels by around 2%. However, in Q2 2004, this gap narrowed to 1%.

Manual versus automatic

Performance of manual and automatic vehicles has followed exactly the same trend over the period. The graph does show, however, that whilst performance of both vehicle types is high, automatic prices consistently outperform manuals by around 2-3% of CAP Clean.

Medium family vehicles

Until Q2 2004, performance of these vehicles followed a similar trend to that of the market as a whole. However, since then this has not happened in medium family vehicles, where petrols outperform diesels by 3-4%.

Large family vehicles

Performance versus CAP Clean of petrol and diesel vehicles in this sector were exactly the same in each quarter, with the exception of Q2 2004, when diesels outperformed petrols by 1%.

Compact executive vehicles

CAP performance has remained at a high level and both petrols and diesels have performed at the same level.

Executive vehicles

CAP performance for petrol and diesel models in this sector have remained at a high level and have been almost identical throughout the period.

4x4 vehicles

Diesel models of this type of vehicle have consistently outperformed the petrol versions by 1 -3%.

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