Fleet News

Disposals: predicting values the accurate way

By Alex Wright, Commercial vehicle sales director, Manheim Auctions

Manheim was fed up with working with data which was always a little woolly so at the beginning of April it published its first LCV Market Analysis report into actual used values of nearly 40,000 LCVs sold across the Manheim network over the past 12 months.

The average age and mileage of those LCVs sold by Manheim was 50 months/72,049 in Q1 05 compared with 52 months/76,565 miles in Q1 2004. That means vans in general are being sold sooner and with fewer miles on the clock, suggesting that fleets would prefer to dispose of them while they have still got plenty of life left in them. The average selling price has remained stable since Q2 2004 at around £3,375. Manheim found that used values have averaged 26% of new prices since Q1 2004, which compares with 40% of new prices on cars over the same period.

Much has been talked about with reference to diesel power versus LPG, but Manheim can now reveal the facts behind the residual value discussion at least. LPG values and demand have been volatile since Q1 04, while diesel has been consistent over the same period. Overall used diesel values have maintained at around 24% of their new price, while LPG only maintains 16% of their new value.

One of the key sectors which can impact on the entire used market is the panel van sector. The age trend has remained relatively constant since Q1 2004 at around 49 months, but the mileage has fallen dramatically over the same period from 88,000 to 79,000 miles.

Splitting the panel van market, over three tonnes there has been a huge boom based on the change to driving licence legislation and the expansion of home delivery.

Average disposal age has sat around 47 months, but mileages have gradually reduced from just short of 100,000 to just over 90,000 miles.

Under three tonnes, disposal age sat at around 55 months and mileage has reduced from 85,000 in Q1 04 to 77,000 in Q1 05, while the picture is different yet again in the small panel van sector, where average disposal age was around 43 months, with mileages reducing from 73,000 in Q1 04 to just 65,000 in Q1 05.

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