The supply of 3.5-tonne vans entering the used market over the next few years will far outstrip demand, hitting residual values hard, says George Alexander, chief commercial vehicle editor at EurotaxGlass’s, which publishes the guide.
He said: ‘Businesses have realised that these smaller vans are prettier to look at, easier to live with and far more suited to the majority of used buyers who typically need to park ‘the wheels’ outside their home. Over the next couple of years, the used market for late-year 3.5-tonne long wheelbase vans will be awash with stock.
‘There will be too many occasions when vans will have too many dents and scratches, and far too many miles. The result will be that, with no export market to save the day, prices will fall in response to volume and how well demand holds up.
‘Only the very best used stock will escape this dire situation, as there will rarely be too much choice at this end of the marketplace.’
So just how far will used prices have to fall? Alexander said: ‘While nobody knows for sure, the answer is undoubtedly a long way.’
Over at CAP, experts say that high volumes and poor condition are driving overall prices down in the range of 2% to 4.5%. There remains plenty of interest in clean vehicles, fuelled by strong demand in the retail market.
Although volume remains high in the car-derived sector, demand is still such that high numbers of Berlingos, Partners and Kangoos are readily finding buyers. Face-lifted Berlingo, Partner and dCi-powered Kangoo are proving the pick of the crop, particularly for the best presented examples.
High volumes of panel vans are continuing, particularly in the 3.5-tonne sector, contributing to an overall reduction in values of between 2% and 4.5%.
Well-presented examples, with low warranted mileage, still attract strong interest. For the rest, high mileage and high reconditioning costs as well as volume keep values subdued.
Interest in Scudo, Dispatch and Expert, which are down 3%, remains patchy. The best performers are clean low-mid mileage examples, with JTD/HDi powering and dual passenger seats.