Just three mega-lease companies will dominate the Europe scene within only a few years, predicts Steffan Schick, chief operating officer of Fleet Logistics.

And, as the car retail market falls away due to fewer dealers and the credit crunch, carmakers will increasingly rely on these mega lease companies to take excess stock.

But it is not all good news: Europe’s leasing companies will be battling against increasing pressure on margins, more risk from uncertain residuals and a move by banks to reduce their exposure to lease risk.

As a result, Europe’s fleet market will grow, although only marginally over the next seven years.

Much of that growth will be see in central and eastern Europe, although the growth will be stunted by the possibility of a recession in the US, which will impact on businesses throughout Europe.

“Recession is a possibility, although not a given,” Mr Schick told delegates at the Fleet News Europe Conference, which was attended by over 120 European lease executives in Brussels last week.

“However, the present indicators suggest an increasing likelihood of a forthcoming recession.”

The consequences for the lease and fleet industries are obvious, he said. Not only will unemployment be a real problem, but knock-on effects such as falling residual values will also become apparent.