BCA’s first Pulse report for 2008 is now out, and Duncan Ward BCA’s UK business development manager – commercial vehicles looks at the findings
Our latest Pulse report shows some interesting price movements taking place in the commercial vehicle sector
over the first quarter of 2008.
Demand has been good since the turn of the year, following the dip seen at the end of 2007, when values for the typical fleet- or leasesourced van fell from the high of £4,200 recorded in October.
Over Quarter 1 as a whole, fleet & lease values averaged just under £4,100 at 65,000 miles, equivalent to nearly 92% of CAP Clean.
Nearly-new stock averaged £10,345 at 9,500 miles (98.6% CAP Clean), while dealer part-exchange stock averaged £2,295 at 92,000 miles and a very respectable 89% of CAP
Looking at the monthly patterns, there was an immediate price rally in January with values rising on average by nearly £250 in the fleet & lease sector, with average mileage falling by around 1,000 compared to December.
Demand for nearly-new stock also saw values rise in January, by a significant £1,700.
However, the small numbers reaching the marketplace can result in large value shifts over a short period of time. P/X values improved by £136 over the same period, equivalent to a 6.2% rise.
However, by February the brakes came on and values faltered.
Economic uncertainty, the credit crunch or the impending new registration plate may all have had a part to play as average fleet & lease and part-exchange values fell by just over £100, while nearly-new prices retreated by some £1,500 to be on a par with pre-Christmas values.
March saw both nearly-new and part-exchange values recovering, but fleet & lease van values stalled, largely due to average mileages rising to over 67,000 (around 3,500
miles higher than January’s figure).
Alongside this rise in average mileage, we have seen greater numbers of poorly presented, hard-worked vans at auction in recent weeks and this will certainly have had a
bearing on average price.
That’s the big picture, but what about the finer details?
With the general movement towards business frugality and downsizing in the LCV market, we continue to see lots of
demand for hatchback, car-sized and small vans.
Condition and mileage are important, as is a side-loading door where available.
A fully stamped service history can also do wonders for buyer confidence.
As suggested last month, expect to seecontinued interest in the micro-van market, as the small numbers available
struggle to meet the increasing demand.
Any late-plate panel van will attract the buyers in droves, as manufacturers continue to work to long delivery times on new stock.
In fact, any panel van in ready-to-retail condition will do exceptionally well in the current market, particularly when combined with a good ‘retail’ style specification such as in-van entertainment, sat-nav, and air-conditioning with bulkhead.
There is also plenty of demand for lutons, tippers and dropsides, and with the onset of the warmer weather it is likely we will see an upswing in demand for minibuses over the coming weeks.
|Avg age||Avg mileage||Avg value||Sale vs CAP|