FIGURES released by CAP Motor Research highlight the areas where fleets are making windfall disposal profits or incurring residual value shortfalls. The residual value forecasting specialist has compared predictions it published three years ago in CAP Monitor, with what is actually happening in today's used car market, as published in CAP Black Book.

This shows that across a basket of cars, the residual values of superminis, upper medium, executive, sports and prestige cars are performing better than CAP Monitor's 1996 forecasts. Prestige cars in particular have outperformed their forecast residual values, leading to windfalls of about £1,250. But lower medium, off-roaders and MPVs are falling below their predicted residual values, with the 4x4s and people-carriers bearing the brunt of the shortfalls and achieving £277 and £387 below their respective forecasts.

CAP Monitor made the forecasts in 1996 on a sample of 62 cars registered between January and July 1996 on an N-plate. The Black Book figures quote actual used values the cars achieved between January and July 1999 - showing the Monitor forecasts were accurate to within 1.36%.