The double cab sector looks likely to be the star performer, as a change in the tax law means fleets can now recover VAT on the list price, provided the payload exceeds one tonne. Alexander said: 'The suggested sales for pick-ups in 2000 represents an increase of 26%, which itself could be significantly below the true potential for this soon-to-be-fashionable sector.'
Panel van sales are also set to boom with the advent of home shopping by some major supermarket chains. Alexander commented: 'With home delivery growing, it seems reasonable to suppose that the larger panel van will continue to dominate at the expense of both smaller vans and light trucks. With the new Transit soon to be available at weights to compete head-on with Mercedes, Iveco and Renault, the years ahead could see the position of the big van becoming even more dominant.'
However, Alexander warned that this was far from good news in the used market place, where this type of van is the hardest to shift. He added: 'With the next Transit out of the bag, it is possible that the current LWB van and its derivatives are set to see values fall back sharply.'