Fleet News

Fleets predict further collapse in residual values

FLEET managers have predicted residual values could fall up to 20% over the next year in a stark analysis of what the future may hold for the used car market. The findings were in the new report, Business Car Expectations, from the Centre for Automotive Industries Management at Nottingham Business School, backed by HSBC Vehicle Finance (UK), which captured the view of 365 fleets, covering more than 76,000 vehicles.

The survey found that just 3% of fleets expected no change, while 10% thought prices would fall 5%, 30% expected a 10% fall, a further 29% expected a collapse of 15% and a quarter of fleets predicted a 20% fall. The survey, carried out before most manufacturers reduced their list prices, also showed that nearly 60% of fleets expected a 5% to 10% fall in new car prices.

Author Professor Peter Cooke revealed the findings as the Alliance and Leicester New Car Price Index forecast a new era of stability for new and used car prices. The index showed a year-on-year fall of 10.4% in December, equivalent to the fall intended by the Supply of New Cars Order 2000. The report also showed an average fall of 4.5% in the value of three-year-old/60,000 miles cars.

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