Expected future uptake of electric vehicles could see oil demand peak by 2030, according to research by Fitch Ratings.
The research and insight company has published a report which says that technological changes and greater product awareness could lead to annual sales of 10 million battery-powered EVs by 2025.
This growth will also be driven by the continued decline in battery costs, consumer preferences and environmental policy.
Governments and manufacturers have set EV targets, while OPEC has raised its forecast for the size of the EV fleet in 2040 to 250 million units from 140m.
The report states: "By considering a scenario where EVs cost and range are comparable to ICEs (internal combustion engines), consumers prefer driving EVs, policymakers mandate and support electrification, and carmakers see cost benefits of focusing on one drivetrain, it is not unreasonable to expect global EV stock by 2040 of more than 1 billion, or more than half the vehicles on the road.
"Applying it to oil demand, shows oil demand peaking in 2029."
The report says the peak is shallow, with oil demand broadly unchanged from today as the world still needs to consume vast amounts of oil.
However, the absence of rising demand would be a significant structural change for the oil market and could make prices more volatile and, on average, lower.