Ford, BMW, Volkswagen, Fiat Chrysler, Peugeot Citroen including Opel/Vauxhall and Hyundai-Kia could miss their 2021 EU CO2 emissions targets, according to PA Consulting Group’s forecast.

Failure to hit the targets may leave them facing fines into the billions.

PA’s 2017 ranking analysis shows that only four out of 11 carmakers are forecast to meet the EU 2021 CO2 emission target, with the rest facing significant fines. The majority of carmakers will face penalties of £83 for every gram of CO2 above the limit, multiplied by the number of cars they sell in 2020. These fines could reach or rise to more than £800 million mark for carmakers.

At the current rate, Volkswagen is expected to face the biggest fine, followed by Fiat Chrysler. The biggest fall from grace is Peugeot Citroen, which was set to meet EU emissions targets, but turns red this year, following the merger with Opel and Vauxhall. This affects their forecast until 2021. In addition, German carmakers face higher penalties and are still suffering from bigger gaps in CO2 performance for 2021, primarily due to the decline of diesel in their portfolio without direct alternatives in place today.

At the other end of the scale, there have been some positive developments, with Volvo, Toyota, Renault-Nissan and Jaguar Land Rover expected to meet the EU emissions targets. There has been a huge change at the top of the table, with Volvo a new number one, up from seventh last year. This is based on their strategy to not sell any more cars with conventional combustion engines from 2019 onwards, which has resulted in a huge improvement in CO2 performance ahead of 2021.

Jaguar Land Rover turns from amber to green for the first time now for 2021, achieving their specific target based on good progress for CO2 performance in their fleet portfolio. Toyota remains number two, but also with significant improved CO2 performance for 2021.

How carmakers rank on CO2 emissions – some carmakers are still falling short
of meeting the 2021 targets

*rank on 2021 forecast
**data from ICCT 2016
***based on actual data until 2016 (ICCT) and PA forecast estimation