Cox Automotive predicts 2023 will see 1.77 million new car registrations, representing a 15.6% increase year-on-year, in the best case scenario.

The latest prediction is 15% lower than previously calculated by the firm and would leave the market 23.1% down compared to the 2000-2019 average, and 23.1% down compared with the most recent pre-pandemic 2019 performance.

Cox Automotive has adjusted its quarterly and 2023 full-year new car market forecasts to reflect the ongoing headwinds facing UK automotive, stemming from macro issues such as the post-pandemic recovery, the war in Ukraine, and the emergence of new and aggressive market entrants.

The revised baseline for 2023 sees the year ending on 1.68 million registrations, 9.5% up year-on-year, 27.1% down compared to the 2000-2019 average, and 27.1% compared to the most recent pre-pandemic 2019 performance. This represents a 10% downgrade on the previous forecast.

Cox Automotive has downgraded the worst-case scenario for the year by 7%. As a result, the company expects 1.55 million registrations, a 1.3% increase year-on-year, 32.6% down compared to the 2000-2019 average, and 32.6% down compared to the most recent pre-pandemic 2019 performance.

Philip Nothard, insight & strategy director at Cox Automotive, said: "I discussed in the last issue of AutoFocus that there are 31 million fewer cars produced in the two years following the global lockdown than in the same period before. Considering the challenges that still exist today around global production in the manufacturing space, this is set to rise to closer to 40 million over three years, if not more.

"It was previously predicted - or hoped - that the production of new vehicles would return to normality by the end of 2022. But unfortunately, many manufacturers indicate this won't be the case until at least the second or third quarter of 2023. This a worrying thought, but I should caveat that supply has improved marginally this year, particularly for specific makes and models, and that manufacturers continue to find new ways to source the vital materials they need to drive supply up."

Cox Automotive has downgraded its full-year forecast for new car and van registrations in 2022.

In its best-case scenario, the company predicts the year will end on 1.62 million registrations, a 1.4% decrease year-on-year.