The RAC is warning that the coming weeks will be critical when it comes to working out where diesel and petrol prices might be heading during the rest of 2021.

It says that as long travel restrictions remain in place to battle coronavirus, low oil demand should protect pump prices from rising too quickly.

However, oil output is also important and any reductions in supply could push the cost of a barrel of oil beyond the $70 mark.

March saw the fifth straight month of petrol and diesel price increases at UK forecourts, with prices up another 2.7p and 2.4p respectively and both fuels now costing the same as they did in February 2020.

With the average price of a litre of petrol now standing at 126.28p and diesel at 129.07p, drivers are respectively having to pay 12.2p and 11.4p more for every litre than they did at the start of November, a rise of about 10% rise in just five months.

This means it now costs £6.68 more to fill a 55-litre petrol car than it did in November (£69.45 in total), and £6.29 more to fill an equivalent-sized diesel car (£70.99).

While the oil price was $63.67 at the end of March having recovered in recent months after hitting a historic low of just $13.21 last April, the ongoing impact of the pandemic on demand – particularly with global travel well down on normal – is, for now, helping to prevent it from going much higher.

RAC fuel spokesman Simon Williams said: “The coming weeks and months are critical when it comes to working out where prices might be heading during the rest of 2021.

“For as long as global Covid travel restrictions remain, it’s hard to see oil prices rocketing – and that should protect wholesale, and in turn, pump prices from rising too quickly.

“However, what the major oil producing nations decide to do in terms of oil output is also important. Any further reductions in supply could start to push the barrel price up above the $70 mark again – spelling yet more pump price rises here in the UK.”

Drivers looking for the best value at the pumps should continue to head to supermarkets, with a litre of unleaded currently costing 121.9p on average, with diesel at 124.86p.

Asda leads the way with petrol at just 120.99p a litre, and diesel at 123.99p. It is still the case, however, that all the major retailers raised their prices in March in line with the rest of the industry, to the tune of an average of 2.61p for petrol and 2.59p for diesel.

In fact, RAC Fuel Watch data suggests that drivers should even be in line for a pump price cut in the coming weeks if retailers fairly reflect wholesale prices on their forecourts.

Regional pump prices compared

Diesel	01/03/2021	30/03/2021	Change
UK average	126.68	129.03	2.35
East	127.61	129.96	2.35
East Midlands	126.65	128.85	2.20
London	127.54	130.21	2.67
North East	125.61	127.97	2.36
North West	126.23	128.63	2.40
Northern Ireland	121.76	124.40	2.64
Scotland	126.26	128.72	2.46
South East	127.95	130.33	2.38
South West	126.84	129.24	2.40
Wales	125.71	128.19	2.48
West Midlands	126.70	128.99	2.29
Yorkshire And The Humber	126.18	128.47	2.29

Unleaded	01/03/2021	30/03/2021	Change
UK average	123.58	126.26	2.68
East	124.03	126.86	2.83
East Midlands	123.43	125.78	2.35
London	124.81	127.87	3.06
North East	122.44	125.11	2.67
North West	123.37	125.89	2.52
Northern Ireland	118.45	122.18	3.73
Scotland	122.72	125.97	3.25
South East	124.59	127.36	2.77
South West	123.48	126.32	2.84
Wales	122.40	125.14	2.74
West Midlands	123.53	125.99	2.46
Yorkshire And The Humber	123.20	125.40	2.20