Tesla is predicted to sell the most electric cars in 2019, but by 2021, Mercedes – fifth in the global ranking in 2019 – will become the market leader in EV production, predicts PA Consulting.

By 2021, Tesla is expected to fall to seventh place, with German carmakers – Mercedes, BMW and VW – coming first, second and fourth respectively. Renault Nissan Mitsubishi are expected to be ranked third.

Tesla, says PA Consulting, faces an uncertain future due to production problems of Model 3 and its profit expectations.

However, the electric carmaker may be able to overcome some of those issues after signing an agreement with Chinese authorities to build a factory in Shanghai. The "Gigafactory" would be Tesla's first outside of the US.

It intends to be producing 500,000 vehicles within five years of construction, which is due to start in the "near future", the company said in a statement.

To build the ranking, PA Consulting scored six key success factors out of 100, using an average to determine a car maker’s e-mobility potential:

• Technology and strategy (model portfolio and technology roadmap) – 30% weighting factor
• Battery technology (cost position and technology maturity) – 20% weighting factor
• Culture and incentives (leadership and incentive system) – 10% weighting factor
• Supplier network (value chain integration) – 15% weighting factor
• Ecosystem and partners (charging technology and third-party services) – 15% weighting factor
• Financial performance (EBIT as e-mobility investment indication) – 10% weighting factor

Thomas Goettle, head of automotive at PA Consulting, said: “Achieving CO2 targets and improving car makers’ future mobility performance score go hand in hand. However, this call to action will come with a huge impact on the companies’ staff resources.

“Our research shows that the roles of 267,000 employees at 16 brands across Europe will be under threat, of which 141,000 employees may need re-qualification – all within the next decade.”

He continued: “To improve their future mobility performance score and meet CO2 targets by 2021, car makers should not only accelerate and realign their new product development, they need to consider value creation in their supply chain and increase sales by customer focus.”

Future Mobility Performance Score – 2019 vs. 2021

Car maker	Future mobility score 2019	Rank in 2019	Future mobility score 2021	Rank in 2021
Tesla	82	1	81	7
Renault/Nissan /Mitsubishi	79	2	85	3
BMW	78	3	87	2
Hyundai Kia	72	4	79	8
Daimler	71	5	88	1
Volvo	70	6	83	5
Volkswagen	69	7	84	4
Toyota	66	8	82	6
General Motors	62	9	68	10
Jaguar/Land Rover	60	10	75	9
PSA/Citroen/Opel	58	11	66	11
Ford	45	12	61	12
Fiat Chrysler	30	13	41	13